Droughts, famines and displacement
The Somalia drought of 2020 to 2023: five poor rainy seasons and a famine projection
From late 2020, Somalia had five rainy seasons in a row with too little rain. In September 2022 the IPC projected famine in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts of Bay region, the first time it projected famine without one already declared. Famine was not declared. A study for the health ministry, WHO and UNICEF estimated 71,100 excess deaths between January 2022 and June 2024, about 40% of them children under five.
In short
From late 2020 to early 2023, Somalia had five rainy seasons in a row with too little rain. In December 2022 the UN-backed food security analysts said about 8.3 million people were expected to face crisis-level hunger or worse by mid-2023 (FSNAU and partners, technical release, 13 December 2022).
Famine was projected but not declared. A study released by the Federal Ministry of Health, WHO and UNICEF estimated that 71,100 people died because of the drought between January 2022 and June 2024. About 40% were children under five (UNICEF Somalia, 21 January 2025).
Five poor seasons
- The December 2022 release named "five consecutive seasons of poor rainfall" and "a likely sixth season of below-average rainfall from March to June 2023" as the main driver (FSNAU, 13 December 2022).
- The October to December 2022 Deyr rains were 25 to 55% below average (FSNAU, 13 December 2022).
- Other drivers were "exceptionally high food prices", conflict and disease outbreaks (FSNAU, 13 December 2022).
The rainy seasons are explained on rain, drought and floods in Somalia.
The famine projections
5 September 2022. Analysts projected famine (IPC Phase 5) between October and December 2022 for farming and herding families in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts and for displaced people in Baidoa town, unless aid reached them. An independent Famine Review Committee checked the evidence (FSNAU and partners, technical release, 5 September 2022).
- FEWS NET said it was the first time the IPC had projected famine for a future period without a famine already declared (FEWS NET alert, 5 September 2022).
- The release explained the three famine thresholds: at least 20% of households with an extreme lack of food, at least 30% of children acutely malnourished, and two adults or four children in every 10,000 dying each day (FSNAU, 5 September 2022).
13 December 2022. Food aid was then reaching over 5.8 million people a month. Analysts projected famine for April to June 2023 in three areas: farm families in Baidoa and Burhakaba, displaced people in Baidoa town, and displaced people in Mogadishu. They named seven more areas at "increased Risk of Famine", including herding areas of central Somalia and Hiiraan, and displacement camps in Garowe, Galkacyo and Dollow (FSNAU, 13 December 2022).
The numbers in December 2022
From the FSNAU technical release of 13 December 2022:
| Measure | Number |
|---|---|
| People in crisis or worse, October to December 2022 | 5.6 million |
| In catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), October to December 2022 | 214,000 |
| Expected in crisis or worse, April to June 2023 | 8.3 million |
| Expected in emergency (IPC Phase 4), April to June 2023 | 2.7 million |
| Expected in catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), April to June 2023 | at least 727,000 |
| Children acutely malnourished, to July 2023 | about 1.8 million |
| Of them, likely severely malnourished | 513,550 |
The analysis was done in November 2022 by 47 experts from 22 government, UN and NGO institutions (FSNAU, 13 December 2022).
The death toll
A series of five studies by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Imperial College London and SIMAD University measured the deaths.
- First report, 20 March 2023. About 43,000 excess deaths in 2022, half of them children under five. The death rate rose from 0.33 to 0.38 per 10,000 people a day during 2022. The highest death rates were around Bay, Bakool and Banadir (UNICEF Somalia, 20 March 2023).
- Forecast. The same report forecast that 135 people might die each day in early 2023, with 18,100 to 34,200 deaths from January to June 2023 (UNICEF, 20 March 2023).
- Final report, 21 January 2025. About 71,100 excess deaths from January 2022 to June 2024. Most were in Banadir, Bay and Lower Shabelle. The north-east had "relatively low levels of mortality" despite high food insecurity (UNICEF Somalia, 21 January 2025).
The 2025 release said the 2022 drought "affected 7.9 million people, nearly half the population", and that "famine was narrowly averted" (UNICEF, 21 January 2025).
Compared with earlier droughts
| Crisis | Estimated excess deaths | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 1991 to 1993 famine | 212,000 to 248,000 | Refugee Policy Group 1994 |
| 2010 to 2012 famine | 258,000 | FSNAU and FEWS NET 2013 |
| 2016 to 2018 drought | about 45,000 | LSHTM 2020 |
| 2022 to mid-2024 drought | 71,100 | UNICEF, WHO and ministry 2025 |
Sources
- FSNAU, FEWS NET and partners (2022). Famine (IPC Phase 5) is expected in parts of Bay region unless humanitarian assistance urgently reaches people most in need, 5 September 2022.
- FEWS NET (2022). Somalia alert, 5 September 2022.
- FSNAU, FEWS NET and partners (2022). Nearly 8.3 million people across Somalia face Crisis or worse; Famine projected in three areas, 13 December 2022.
- UNICEF Somalia (2023). New study finds that 43,000 excess deaths may have occurred in 2022 from the drought in Somalia, 20 March 2023.
- UNICEF Somalia (2025). New study estimates that 71,000 drought-related excess deaths may have occurred in Somalia between 2022 and 2024, 21 January 2025.
Sources
- FSNAU and partners, technical release, 13 December 2022 · fsnau.org
- UNICEF Somalia, 21 January 2025 · unicef.org
- FSNAU and partners, technical release, 5 September 2022 · fsnau.org
- FEWS NET alert, 5 September 2022 · fews.net
- UNICEF Somalia, 20 March 2023 · unicef.org
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Where this matters
- Muqdisho (Mogadishu) and BanaadirMogadishu (Muqdisho) is Somalia's capital and makes up the Banadir region, with about 2.97 million people in 20 districts.
- Dhuusamarreeb (Dhusamareb) and GalgaduudGalgaduud is a region of central Somalia in Galmudug State, with Dhusamareb (Dhuusamarreeb) as its capital and about 845,000 people.
- Jowhar (Johar) and Middle ShabelleMiddle Shabelle is the farming region along the Shabelle river north of Mogadishu, with Jowhar as its capital and about 1 to 1.26 million people.
- Marka (Merca) and Lower ShabelleLower Shabelle is Somalia's biggest farming region, along the Shabelle river south-west of Mogadishu, with Marka (Merca) as its capital and about 835,000 to…
- Garbahaarrey (Garbaharey) and GedoGedo is the south-western region on the borders with Kenya and Ethiopia, with Garbahaarrey as its capital and about 1 million people.
Same era
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- Birmingham (Somali diaspora)About 17,000 to 21,600 Somalis live in Birmingham (Census 2021), mostly in Nechells, Newtown, Small Heath and Alum Rock. History, work, health and ties home.
- Bristol (Somali diaspora)9,167 people in Bristol identified as Somali or Somalilander in Census 2021, the city's largest minority group. Where they live, work, housing, leaders and ties home.
- Calgary, Alberta, Canada2,845 people of Somali origin lived in Calgary at the 2021 Census, plus 890 in Brooks. How they came, who serves them and what they face.
- Denmark (Somali diaspora)21,885 people of Somali origin lived in Denmark in 2026, half born there. Numbers, history, work, permit reviews, and ties home.
- DjiboutiAbout 13,900 refugees from Somalia live in Djibouti (Aug 2026): numbers since 1990, Ali Addeh, Holl-Holl, the 2017 refugee law, Arta 2000 and 2025 returns.
Keep reading
- Disasters in Somalia: a list from 1974 to 2026A list of every recorded disaster in Somalia from the 1974 drought to the 2026 dengue outbreak, year by year, with deaths and people affected and a link to the full page or UN record.
- Famines and droughts in Somalia: a timeline and the Somali names for themA timeline of droughts and famines in Somalia from 1913 to 2023, with the Somali names given to each, deaths where estimated, and links to the full pages.
- Rain, drought and floods in Somalia: the Gu and Deyr seasons and the great droughtsSomalia's rainy seasons (Gu and Deyr), the great droughts from 1974 to today, the death tolls, the 2023 floods, and what changed after the 2011 famine.
- The Somalia famine of 2010 to 2012: what happened and how many diedThe 2010 to 2012 famine in southern Somalia: the drought, the famine declarations region by region, the blocked aid, the death toll by region, the refugees and how it ended.
- The Somalia famine of 1991 to 1993 (Caga Barar): causes, deaths and reliefThe 1991 to 1993 famine in southern Somalia: how war and drought caused it, Baidoa and the camps, the death toll, the Red Cross and UN response, and how it ended.
- The Somalia drought of 2016 to 2018: famine warned, famine avertedThe 2016 to 2018 drought in Somalia: the poor rains, the national disaster, cholera and displacement, the cash response, the death toll and why famine was not declared.