The Somalia drought of 2016 to 2018: famine warned, famine averted

In short

From April 2016 to December 2017, Somalia had four poor rainy seasons in a row. By mid-2017, 6.2 million Somalis, half the population, faced acute food insecurity. Close to one million people were displaced between 2016 and 2017, mostly because of the drought (World Bank, Somali Poverty and Vulnerability Assessment, summary of chapter 3: drought impact).

Famine was not declared. A study by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) estimated that about 45,000 Somalis died because of the crisis from January 2017 to December 2018. The authors said "the true number may be considerably higher" (LSHTM, Estimates of crisis-attributable mortality in Somalia, 2014–2018, FAQ, January 2020).

Four poor rainy seasons

• Seasons. The Gu and Deyr rains of 2016 and the Gu and Deyr rains of 2017 were all below normal. "Each successive failed rainy season between April 2016 and December 2017 exacerbated food insecurity" (World Bank summary, p. 1).
• Livestock. Lack of water and pasture caused livestock losses of 25 to 75% of herds in the first half of 2017 (World Bank summary, p. 2).
• Prices and wages. Families sold assets and used up food stocks as food and water prices rose and farm wages fell (World Bank summary, p. 2).

The seasons themselves are explained on rain, drought and floods in Somalia.

National disaster

• 27 February 2017. The World Health Organization warned that Somalia was at risk of its third famine in 25 years (Al Jazeera, 28 February 2017).
• 28 February 2017. President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed declared the drought a national disaster and appealed for international help. WHO said more than 363,000 acutely malnourished children needed urgent support (Al Jazeera, 28 February 2017).
• 4 March 2017. Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire's office said 110 people had died of hunger and diarrhoea in Bay region in the previous 48 hours. A regional official said most were children and elderly people in villages around Baidoa (Al Jazeera, 4 March 2017).
• 7 March 2017. UN Secretary-General António Guterres visited Mogadishu and Baidoa. He appealed for $825 million to support 5.5 million people for six months (UNSOM, 7 March 2017).

Cholera and measles

Drought cut the water available for drinking and washing. This led to "large-scale outbreaks of water-borne and infectious diseases like cholera and measles" (World Bank summary, p. 2).

• By early March 2017 there had been 7,731 cholera cases and 183 deaths in two months (UNSOM, 7 March 2017).
• Across 2017 there were 77,000 cholera and acute watery diarrhoea cases and 16,000 reported measles cases (DFID, Somalia 2017 drought response: real-time review, 2018, p. 2).
• In March 2017 WHO and partners ran Somalia's first national oral cholera vaccination campaign, reaching over 450,000 people. Cholera treatment centres were working in 40 districts by May (WHO, 11 May 2017).

The numbers at the peak

After the August 2017 FSNAU assessment (DFID review, p. 2):

The response

• Cash. By mid-2017 the food security sector reached more than three million people with cash and vouchers. "In contrast to 2011, cash and vouchers were widely accepted" (DFID review, p. 21). The UK pressed for a flat transfer of $60 a month per household (p. 22).
• Somalis' own help. The review notes that "remittance flows, as always, are much greater than aid flows". The government, states, private sector, diaspora and civil society "all played important roles" (DFID review, p. 3).
• Why no famine. The review found it "reasonable to attribute the absence of famine in part to the speed and scale of the humanitarian response, in conjunction with community's own strategies, remittances and other forms of support" (DFID review, p. iii).
• UNICEF said that by the end of 2017, 6.2 million people, including 3.4 million children, still needed aid, and that the response was "massive and early" and "led by the Somali Government" (UNICEF Somalia, 2017 year in review).

The death toll

The LSHTM team re-analysed 201 household surveys from 2014 to 2018 and modelled death rates by district and month. The study was funded by the UK government and led by Abdihamid Warsame, Séverine Frison, Amy Gimma and Francesco Checchi (LSHTM FAQ, January 2020, pp. 1–2).

• About 45,000 excess deaths from January 2017 to December 2018.
• Even in a "conservative scenario", the toll "remains above 19,400" (p. 3).
• Unlike 2011, the death rate was highest "in the northeast and central regions of the country" (p. 2).

Sources

• World Bank. Somali Poverty and Vulnerability Assessment: summary of chapter 3, drought impact.
• LSHTM (2020). Estimates of crisis-attributable mortality in Somalia, 2014–2018: FAQ document, January 2020.
• DFID (2018). Somalia 2017 drought response: real-time review.
• Al Jazeera (2017). Somalia declares 'national disaster' over drought, 28 February 2017.
• Al Jazeera (2017). Somalia PM: 110 dead from hunger in 48 hours, 4 March 2017.
• UNSOM (2017). World must act now to stop famine, UN chief Guterres says on visit to drought-hit Somalia, 7 March 2017.
• WHO (2017). WHO calls for immediate action to save lives in Somalia, 11 May 2017.
• UNICEF Somalia. 2017 year in review: UNICEF helps avert famine in Somalia.