Rain, drought and floods in Somalia: the Gu and Deyr seasons and the great droughts

The four seasons

The Somali year has four seasons, two wet and two dry (FAO GIEWS, Somalia country brief, 15 September 2026):

When one rainy season is poor, families get by. When several are poor in a row, water and pasture run out, food prices rise and people move to towns and camps. See how many Somalis are displaced.

The great droughts

1973 to 1975: Abaartii Dabadheer, "the lingering drought"

Nomads hit by the drought gathered at about 20 relief camps. The government then settled about 100,000 of them in three farming settlements (Dujuma, Sablaale and Kurtunwaarey) and three fishing settlements (Baraawe, Cadale and Ceel). A 1982 survey found that 78 to 87% of settled families had lost all their animals in the drought (Tsui, Ragsdale and Shirwa, Genus, 1991).

1992: famine in the war

An estimated 220,000 people died over 12 months in the 1992 famine. A larger share of the population died then than in 2011 (FSNAU and FEWS NET, 2 May 2013).

2010 to 2012: the famine

Drought, a spike in food prices and blocked aid led to famine in the south. A study for the UN's food security unit and FEWS NET found that about 258,000 people died between October 2010 and April 2012 because of it. Of these, 133,000 were children under five (FSNAU and FEWS NET 2013).

• 4.6% of the whole population of southern and central Somalia died, and 10% of young children.
• Lower Shabelle, Mogadishu and Bay were hit hardest.
• Deaths peaked at about 30,000 a month between May and August 2011.

The study called it "one of the worst famines in the last 25 years" (FSNAU and FEWS NET 2013).

2017: famine prevented

In January 2017 the early-warning systems raised a famine alert. Aid scaled up quickly, with large-scale cash transfers. A UK government review found it "reasonable to attribute the absence of famine in part to the speed and scale" of the response (DFID, Somalia 2017 real-time review).

2021 to 2024: rainy seasons that brought too little rain

By March 2023, Somalia had gone through five rainy seasons in a row with too little rain, the longest run in recent memory (UNICEF Somalia 2023, below). A study by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Imperial College London and SIMAD University estimated about 71,000 excess deaths from January 2022 to June 2024. About 40% were children under five. Most deaths were in Banadir, Bay and Lower Shabelle (UNICEF Somalia, 21 January 2025). An earlier report in the same series had estimated 43,000 excess deaths in 2022 alone (UNICEF Somalia, 20 March 2023).

The 2023 floods

The drought ended in a flood. In late 2023, El Niño brought very heavy Deyr rains. The government's assessment found the floods affected about 2.48 million people, drove more than 1.2 million from their homes and killed 188. About half of the country's districts were hit, with Beledweyne and Doolow among the worst (Somali Disaster Management Agency, Rapid Post-Disaster Needs Assessment; ReliefWeb, Somalia floods, October 2023).

2026: dry again

The Gu rains of 2026 were below average and uneven. In mid-June, between 25% and 70% of cropland in Lower and Middle Shabelle and the Bay sorghum belt was under severe drought. About 6 million people, over 30% of the population, were projected to be in crisis or worse in April to June 2026. A risk of famine was flagged for Burhakaba district in Bay under a worst case. Forecasters expected well-above-average Deyr rains from October 2026, which help crops but raise the risk of floods (FAO GIEWS 2026).

What changed after 2011

• Early warning. The UN's Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) and FEWS NET track rain, prices and child nutrition, and sound the alarm early (FSNAU and FEWS NET 2013; DFID review).
• Cash. Much aid now comes as cash rather than food, so families buy what they need in local markets. Large-scale cash transfers were central to the 2017 response (DFID review).
• A national disaster agency. The Somali Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA) now leads the government's response and published the 2023 flood assessment (SoDMA).

Sources

• FAO GIEWS (2026). Somalia country brief, 15 September 2026.
• FSNAU and FEWS NET (2013). Study suggests 258,000 Somalis died due to severe food insecurity and famine.
• UNICEF Somalia (2025). 71,000 drought-related excess deaths may have occurred in Somalia between 2022 and 2024.
• UNICEF Somalia (2023). 43,000 excess deaths may have occurred in 2022.
• SoDMA (2024). Somalia 2023 Deyr floods: Rapid Post-Disaster Needs Assessment.
• DFID (2018). Somalia 2017 drought response: real-time review.
• Tsui, A. O., Ragsdale, T. A. and Shirwa, A. I. (1991). The settlement of Somali nomads. Genus 47(1–2): 131–152.