# The Somalia drought of 2020 to 2023: five poor rainy seasons and a famine projection > The 2020 to 2023 drought in Somalia: five poor rainy seasons, the 2022 famine projection for Bay region, 8.3 million people in crisis, and the 71,100 estimated deaths. Source page: https://calankii.com/en/society/drought-2020-2023/ Last checked: 2026-11-13 Publisher: Calankii (https://calankii.com) ## In short From late 2020 to early 2023, Somalia had **five rainy seasons in a row with too little rain**. In December 2022 the UN-backed food security analysts said about **8.3 million people** were expected to face crisis-level hunger or worse by mid-2023 ([FSNAU and partners, technical release, 13 December 2022](https://fsnau.org/downloads/Multi-Partner-Technical-Release-on-Updated-IPC-Analysis-for-Somalia-fo-October-2022-to-June-2023-Final-%28English%29-13-Dec-2022.pdf)). Famine was projected but not declared. A study released by the Federal Ministry of Health, WHO and UNICEF estimated that **71,100 people** died because of the drought between January 2022 and June 2024. About **40% were children under five** ([UNICEF Somalia, 21 January 2025](https://www.unicef.org/somalia/press-releases/71000-drought-related-excess-deaths)). ## Five poor seasons - The December 2022 release named "five consecutive seasons of poor rainfall" and "a likely sixth season of below-average rainfall from March to June 2023" as the main driver ([FSNAU](/en/institutions/fao-somalia/), 13 December 2022). - The October to December 2022 [Deyr](/en/economy/pastoralism-in-somalia/) rains were 25 to 55% below average (FSNAU, 13 December 2022). - Other drivers were "exceptionally high food prices", conflict and disease outbreaks (FSNAU, 13 December 2022). The rainy seasons are explained on [rain, drought and floods in Somalia](/en/society/rain-drought-and-floods/). ## The famine projections **5 September 2022.** Analysts projected **famine (IPC Phase 5)** between October and December 2022 for farming and herding families in **Baidoa and [Burhakaba](/en/regions/bay/)** districts and for displaced people in Baidoa town, unless aid reached them. An independent Famine Review Committee checked the evidence ([FSNAU and partners, technical release, 5 September 2022](https://fsnau.org/downloads/Multi-Partner-Technical-Release-on-Famine-Projection-in-Bay-Region-of-Somalia-5-Sep-2022.pdf)). - FEWS NET said it was the first time the IPC had projected famine for a future period without a famine already declared ([FEWS NET alert, 5 September 2022](https://fews.net/sites/default/files/documents/reports/Somalia-ALERT-20220905.pdf)). - The release explained the three famine thresholds: at least 20% of households with an extreme lack of food, at least 30% of children acutely malnourished, and two adults or four children in every 10,000 dying each day (FSNAU, 5 September 2022). **13 December 2022.** Food aid was then reaching over 5.8 million people a month. Analysts projected famine for April to June 2023 in three areas: farm families in Baidoa and Burhakaba, displaced people in Baidoa town, and displaced people in **Mogadishu**. They named seven more areas at "increased Risk of Famine", including herding areas of central Somalia and [Hiiraan](/en/regions/hiiraan/), and displacement camps in Garowe, [Galkacyo](/en/regions/mudug/) and Dollow (FSNAU, 13 December 2022). ## The numbers in December 2022 From the [FSNAU technical release of 13 December 2022](https://fsnau.org/downloads/Multi-Partner-Technical-Release-on-Updated-IPC-Analysis-for-Somalia-fo-October-2022-to-June-2023-Final-%28English%29-13-Dec-2022.pdf): | Measure | Number | |---|---| | People in crisis or worse, October to December 2022 | 5.6 million | | In catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), October to December 2022 | 214,000 | | Expected in crisis or worse, April to June 2023 | 8.3 million | | Expected in emergency (IPC Phase 4), April to June 2023 | 2.7 million | | Expected in catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), April to June 2023 | at least 727,000 | | Children acutely malnourished, to July 2023 | about 1.8 million | | Of them, likely severely malnourished | 513,550 | The analysis was done in November 2022 by 47 experts from 22 government, UN and NGO institutions (FSNAU, 13 December 2022). ## The death toll A series of five studies by the [London](/en/diaspora/london/) School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Imperial College London and [SIMAD University](/en/institutions/main-universities/) measured the deaths. - **First report, 20 March 2023.** About **43,000 excess deaths** in 2022, half of them children under five. The death rate rose from 0.33 to 0.38 per 10,000 people a day during 2022. The highest death rates were around Bay, [Bakool](/en/regions/bakool/) and Banadir ([UNICEF Somalia, 20 March 2023](https://www.unicef.org/somalia/press-releases/new-study-finds-43000-excess-deaths-may-have-occurred-2022-drought-somalia)). - **Forecast.** The same report forecast that 135 people might die each day in early 2023, with 18,100 to 34,200 deaths from January to June 2023 (UNICEF, 20 March 2023). - **Final report, 21 January 2025.** About **71,100 excess deaths** from January 2022 to June 2024. Most were in Banadir, Bay and [Lower Shabelle](/en/infrastructure/k50-airstrip/). The north-east had "relatively low levels of mortality" despite high food insecurity ([UNICEF Somalia, 21 January 2025](https://www.unicef.org/somalia/press-releases/71000-drought-related-excess-deaths)). The 2025 release said the 2022 drought "affected 7.9 million people, nearly half the population", and that "famine was narrowly averted" (UNICEF, 21 January 2025). ## Compared with earlier droughts | Crisis | Estimated excess deaths | Source | |---|---|---| | [1991 to 1993 famine](/en/society/famine-1991-1993/) | 212,000 to 248,000 | Refugee Policy Group 1994 | | [2010 to 2012 famine](/en/society/famine-2010-2012/) | 258,000 | FSNAU and FEWS NET 2013 | | [2016 to 2018 drought](/en/society/drought-2016-2018/) | about 45,000 | LSHTM 2020 | | 2022 to mid-2024 drought | 71,100 | UNICEF, WHO and ministry 2025 | ## Sources - FSNAU, FEWS NET and partners (2022). [Famine (IPC Phase 5) is expected in parts of Bay region unless humanitarian assistance urgently reaches people most in need](https://fsnau.org/downloads/Multi-Partner-Technical-Release-on-Famine-Projection-in-Bay-Region-of-Somalia-5-Sep-2022.pdf), 5 September 2022. - FEWS NET (2022). [Somalia alert](https://fews.net/sites/default/files/documents/reports/Somalia-ALERT-20220905.pdf), 5 September 2022. - FSNAU, FEWS NET and partners (2022). [Nearly 8.3 million people across Somalia face Crisis or worse; Famine projected in three areas](https://fsnau.org/downloads/Multi-Partner-Technical-Release-on-Updated-IPC-Analysis-for-Somalia-fo-October-2022-to-June-2023-Final-%28English%29-13-Dec-2022.pdf), 13 December 2022. - [UNICEF Somalia](/en/institutions/unicef-somalia/) (2023). [New study finds that 43,000 excess deaths may have occurred in 2022 from the drought in Somalia](https://www.unicef.org/somalia/press-releases/new-study-finds-43000-excess-deaths-may-have-occurred-2022-drought-somalia), 20 March 2023. - UNICEF Somalia (2025). [New study estimates that 71,000 drought-related excess deaths may have occurred in Somalia between 2022 and 2024](https://www.unicef.org/somalia/press-releases/71000-drought-related-excess-deaths), 21 January 2025. --- I want to help with this: email hello@calankii.com. Fix this page: email hello@calankii.com with the page link and your source.